ACA Forecast: 6.2 Million Insured by Health Insurance Enrollment Deadline

Affordable Care Act

Tracking the success of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) hasn’t been easy, mostly because the figures come from individual states running their own health care exchange websites. Politically-active web developer Charles Gaba has taken up the challenge of determining how many “people [are] actually getting decent medical care at an affordable price” since the ACA’s launch.

His latest prediction of health insurance signups through heath exchange websites: nearly 6.2 million newly-insured Americans by the March 31st deadline.

Tracking Affordable Care Act Enrollment

According to The Washington Post, Gaba is a card-carrying Democrat who has used the well-known political forum website Daily Kos to enlist the help of others in tracking Obamacare enrollment state by state. His published Affordable Care Act figures include new Medicare enrollments as well, since these enrollments count toward the number of people that initially had no health insurance and now do as a result of the health care exchange websites.

Gaba said the biggest challenge is determining who actually has health insurance. In a post on Daily Kos, he writes:

“Someone creating an account… is not the same as someone starting an application, which is not the same as someone completing an application, which is different from having their application approved, which is not the same as signing up for an actual policy, which is not the same as actually paying for their policy.”

Enrollment is defined as signing up for coverage under the Affordable Care Act website, not necessarily following through to purchase a policy. Sources estimate that 80 to 90 percent of applicants will actually follow through with purchasing policies.

Are the Health Insurance Signup Numbers Accurate?

It appears Gaba and team are doing a good job of tracking the numbers. He predicted enrollment would hit 5 million by Mar. 18. Enrollment reached 5 million just one day before Gaba’s estimation, a report by CNBC confirmed. Gaba, who claims his figures are 95 to 99 percent accurate, has determined that enrollments through health care exchange websites will hit almost 6.2 million by the government’s deadline.

The number of those signing up through health insurance agencies is a figure that hasn’t made it into Gaba’s study. He told The Washington Post, “That is the single, biggest untold story of the numbers right now.”